Monday, May 30, 2016

Hiroshima Had to Happen


With President Obama's historic trip to Hiroshima, Japan - the first by a sitting president - the debate as to whether it was right to have dropped 'The Bomb' on Japan in 1945 is once again a hot topic in America.  Japan still looks to the U.S. to apologize for this action.  The passage of time might be said to give us a clearer view of the probity of that decision, but there are relevant facts that also fade with time.

CBS News reports that while use of the atomic bomb was condoned by almost 60% (vs 35% disapprove) as little as 21 years ago, this has shifted with generational and demographic changes.  As of 2016:

“Forty-three percent of Americans say they approve of the use of the atomic bomb on Japanese cities in 1945, while 44 percent disapprove.” **
 
Fire swept through the city

The sheer destruction of the two cities and loss of life, mostly civilians, are the primary facts cited by those who disagree, some vehemently, against the decision.  Over ninety percent of Hiroshima's buildings were wiped out, partially because of the mainly wooden construction and follow-on fires.  Almost 70,000 people lost their lives right away with an estimated 60-70,000 more injured with many/most succumbing to the effects of radiation over the course of the next year.  Nagasaki faired marginally better as the bomb was dropped 3 km from the targeted area in a valley, but still some 40-80,000 people lost their lives or were gravely injured. *** & ++ & ^^


Japanese Policemen identifying victims of Operation Meetinghouse
Opponents to the weapon's use at Hiroshima state outright, or at least imply, that this destruction was the worst American or Allied event to occur not just in WWII, but in the 70 years since.  They point out that there were acceptable alternatives that could have been worked out over time instead, and that peace entreaties were already underway.  The latter is true; initial feelers had been sent by the Japanese to the Soviets essentially looking to secure a peace in which Japan would pull back from the territories that it had occupied with essentially no other repercussions.     

Over 90% of the city center was destroyed

Here are some counterpoints:

First, the bombing of Hiroshima was NOT the most destructive event America was responsible for in WWII (or since); nor was it even the worst thing we did to Japan in the course of the war. 
 

As appalled as someone might be by the devastation wrought by use of atomic weapons, consider what you've seen so far in this post.  Apart from the initial picture of the mushroom cloud at the top, the next three photos are the aftermath of conventional warfare events, i.e. nothing to do with atomic bombs.  They are, instead:
  • Tokyo after Operation Meetinghouse firebombing over 9-10 March 1945
  • Burned bodies from same
  • Dresden, Germany after Operation Thunderclap where initially it was thought that over 500,000 people had been killed, such was the level of destruction  
The focus on nuclear bombs, and the power to sway opinion through news coverage, photos and videos can serve an agenda.  It may be a good one, such as convincing nations that nuclear weapons should never be used again, or something less noble like continually trying to lay guilt on the United States for difficult but correct decisions made in the course of a just war.    


2016 Americans are pretty far removed from the realities of World War II
Only 6% of WWII veterans are estimated to be alive today, and given that they are in their late 80's and 90's, they are likely not the ones being asked in these opinion polls. +++  How many Americans can even identify when WWII took place, who our enemies were, or how many lost their lives to give context to any opinions they hold on the subject of the use of atomic weapons?  A Gallup poll in 2004 found that less than half of 18-29 year-olds could identify Germany as the enemy we were fighting in the D-Day Invasion.  Those people would be as old as 41 today and it is likely the follow-on group is even less aware. ^^^

And we're asking the average American in a poll whether they think it was right that America used the first nuclear bomb?  On what basis are they making this "informed" decision?


Japan's "victim of the war" view and inability to truly accept accountability even to this day undermines much of its argument that the bombing was unwarranted
With the exception of some awkward admissions, politically, Japan has refused to admit it did anything wrong during the Second World War or in its ruthless colonialism. ++  Meanwhile, in the decade when the atomic bomb decision was made, Japan carried out such highlights as the:
  • Rape of Nanking (see below)
  • Bombing of Pearl Harbor against a United States that was at peace
  • Bataan Death March of American and other Allied soldiers in the Phillippines 
  • Torture and indiscriminate killing of prisoners (and civilians) across conquered territories 
  • Sexual slavery of the "Comfort Women" all over Asia


When deciding, President Truman only had the evidence on hand
It's full scale war, against one of two enemies bent on taking over the world, and they're not very nice people at that.  They must be defeated, completely, to take away their ability to wage war in the future, and to provide a deterrent against future aggression by other nations.   Having just gone through the "war to end all wars" barely two decades earlier, it was incumbent upon the Allies to hold the German and Japanese leaders accountable for their crimes, brutality and atrocities.   A negotiated peace would not achieve the above goals, leaving the cancer to grow anew.

As to the weapons of war:  You've been seeking to advance technology faster than your foes for the last four to five years, because every advance saves Allied lives and shortens the war.  You just came up with a game changer while the following events have recently taken place:
  • Battle of Gaudalcanal - 6 long months to take over islands in that region costing 7100 American lives with a larger number injured; 31,000 Japanese killed
  • Okinawa - two months of savage fighting for this one island resulting in 50,000 Allied and 100,000 Japanese casualties (killed and wounded)
  • Iwo Jima - 26,000 American Marines, one third of ALL Marine casualties in WWII; 22,000 Japanese
  • Kamizkaze warfare introduced - the modern forerunner of the suicide bomber
  • Stalin's mid-1945 intention to engage Japan in war and seize ground, after having taken over much of Eastern Europe in Germany's defeat
Knowing how the battles have gone on far off islands, due deliberation must be given to the costs to defeat Japan in its homeland, and other means of doing so.

Lastly, a few final considerations
American soldiers watching a nuclear bomb explosion
The U.S. did not really know the true effects of the atomic bomb, as can be seen in the films of our soldiers being exposed to nuclear explosions.  Guidance issued at the time of the planned invasion included the caution that soldiers should not enter an area hit by a bomb for "at least 48 hours." ****

The invasion plan for mainland Japan, Operation Downfall, had projected casualties that ran the gamut from 30,000 U.S. troops in the first 30 days (it would likely take much, much longer), to ultimate American losses of 500,000 to one million while Japan lost as many as five million.  
Due to terrain characteristics and intelligence, military planners in Japan had accurately predicted the two landing areas for invasion and prepared an all-out defense.  One major assumption, that could drive Allied losses into the millions was, "That operations in this area will be opposed not only by the available organized military forces of the Empire, but also by a fanatically hostile population." ****
10,000 aircraft were dedicated to Japan's kamikaze defense with plans to sink 400 ships (for comparison, we currently have 430 ships TOTAL in the U.S. Navy) ++++

There was no reason to doubt Japan's resolve to continue fighting, particularly when it came to the homeland.

Knowing these facts in the sixth year of a world war, with responsibility to the nation for all American troops resting on your shoulders as Commander-in-Chief, what would you do?



A summary of Japan's political process after the nuclear explosions at Hiroshima and Nagasaki (italics mine):

"No Surrender

Japan had received what would seem to have been overwhelming shocks. Yet, after two atomic bombings and the Soviet invasion, the Japanese government still refused to surrender.

The Potsdam Proclamation had called for 'Japan to decide whether she will continue to be controlled by those self-willed militaristic advisers.' On the 13th, the Supreme Council For the Direction of the War (known as the 'Big 6') met to address the Potsdam Proclamation's call for surrender....  The meeting adjourned in a deadlock, with no decision to surrender.

Later that day the Japanese Cabinet met. It was only this body - not the Big 6, not even the Emperor - that could rule as to whether Japan would surrender. And a unanimous decision was required. But again War Minister Anami led the opponents of surrender, resulting in a vote of 12 in favor of surrender, 3 against, and 1 undecided. Having failed to reach a decision to surrender, the Cabinet adjourned." ^^^^

It wasn't until the Japanese Emperor, who was considered an actual deity, took the unusual step of weighing in on the decision-making process that a unanimous vote for peace could be reached.

...

First fusion or thermonuclear test by U.S. yielding 10-12 Megatons (800x more powerful than Hiroshima bomb), November 1952; Korean War 1950-53; USSR first A-bomb explosion - 1949


Only one atomic bomb test had taken place 21 days before its use in Hiroshima.  No one had ever deployed one in war, and therefore no one truly knew its awful capability for destruction and death.  Had the world not witnessed its use at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end the war, I have little doubt that nuclear bombs would have been deployed in the next conflict to arise, most likely Korea, with far more devastating results due to yield increases and possible/probable escalation. 

---------------------------



“The International Military Tribunal for the Far East in Tokyo estimated in 1948 that over 200,000 Chinese were killed in the incident.  Whereas in 1947 the Nanjing War Crimes Tribunal estimated that the number was more than 300,000.”

A quick story and summary to relate the events of that period: 
A killing “contest” was covered in an Osaka newspaper.  Two officers competed to see who could be the first to kill 100 people with swords.  Since there was a virtual tie, this went on to a second round for a goal of 150 killed.  

Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers who had surrendered were massacred in the aftermath of the battle.  Over a period of days roughly 1000 women and children were raped per day, frequently being mutilated and/or killed right after.  Pregnant women were raped and then their fetuses bayonetted.  Children of all ages were killed or wounded and left to die in “sporting” and profane manners.








Friday, May 20, 2016

Bathroom Politics


State laws defining who uses which bathrooms are stupid.
Presidential edicts asserting contrived new rights based on old laws is legislating, an over-reach, and butting into an issue that would have relieved itself.

I addressed the silliness of North Carolina's HB 2 law and other states' propositions in my companion blog (The Way Things Otter Bee:  April Short Shots 2016 - last shot) - I didn't think then that it merited more than 25% of a joke post.  But as we've come to expect from our vehemently partisan politicians, hysterical accusations (or election year issue creation) has won out over good judgment.  So we're back at it.


North Carolina was busy shooting itself in the foot, multiple times, with this new bathroom law.  The collective and multi-million dollar cold shoulder from the business world, celebrities and prospective vacationers was a far more democratic humiliation that would have effected change over the long term.  Never mind that NC's new law has no effective means of enforcement.


Per a MotherJones report by Samantha Michaels:

“Because it's a civil law, using the wrong bathroom wouldn't be considered a criminal violation in itself, Hallingse from the Asheville PD points out. But the law doesn't lay out civil penalties for the violation, either, says Oakley, so police officers will have to use their best judgment when responding to complaints. Danielsen, the spokeswoman from the Greensboro PD, says officers there will try to respond with the "lowest degree of interaction" possible.”


Even the bill’s co-sponsor, state Representative Dan Bishop, wrote that:

"There are no enforcement provisions or penalties in HB2. Its purpose is to restore common sense bathroom and shower management policy in public buildings, not to pick out people to punish." **

If it wasn't repealed outright, eventually someone with enough determination would find a way to be in violation of this civil law, and a lawsuit would have occurred.  The legitimacy of HB2 would then be settled in the judicial branch, probably after an appeal or three.  Alternatively, a more well thought out and practical version of this quickly written (and quickly passed) law could be generated on the legislative side

The Obama Administration had the chance to act like the adult in the room, and withhold action while certain states walked themselves back from the ledge - and localities actually found acceptable solutions.  


However, a counterpoint case was made about this by a visiting friend, and it is essentially this:  You're a second term black president in his final year who has been getting nowhere with a do-nothing white conservative Congress for some time now.  A chance comes to exercise some executive, or even supra-executive power and poke them in the eye a bit - what do you do?  Based upon recent unilateral presidential decrees, and despite a number of Judiciary slap-downs, there wasn't much doubt.

(Remember when President Obama told Univision, "I am President.  I am not king.  I can't do these things just by myself."? - that was just so 2014....)

Soon after, Attorney General Lynch launched into a litany of NC transgender rights violations under Title IX and Title VII, giving the state just one week to essentially rescind the new law (which, again, isn't and can't be enforced) or face loss of federal dollars.

What's a good southern state to do?  Of course they sued and made a federal case out of it.

Despite the resounding silence of the public school systems asking for federal guidance on the issue ("they received some questions"), the Administration doubled down with a Transgender Directive in line with their interpretation of the two Titles.  Specifically, it imparts guidance that the term "sex" is determined by self-identification, and ensures open use of school bathrooms, changing rooms and showers.  It's just "practical suggestions," but implied is the threat of a similar lawsuit and billions of dollars in federal moneys going away since that was the explicit warning to NC.


But Consider This
First of all, when these laws were written in 1964 and 1972, it seems highly doubtful the authors intended that people with, say, male body parts were to be allowed in female bathrooms and communal showers because that's the sex they "identified" with.  Usually the law isn't quite so...squishy.  

Also, per the guidance letter it would require the students to submit a letter through their parents to school officials establishing this chosen identification to be given this access.  But if the Administration's interpretation of the Titles is correct, the requirement of such permission in itself would be an abridgement of the student's rights.  And certainly if this is to be the law of the land, establishing such identification in all the institutions (or at the very least:  public schools, universities receiving public funds, parks, libraries, federal/state/local government buildings, etc.) for all kids AND adults is one big step beyond birth certificates, and laughably impractical.  So essentially, by this math, anyone can use any facility they choose (and no one can object to it).

Well, in the U.S., HP gets a second bite at the apple

Therefore, we should do away with separate male and female accommodations.

"In the end we're all the same." - Ben Kweller

I am not sure America is ready for that just yet. 

Middle School Cross Country Team
For starters, ask the kids.  Then ask the parents.


You Don't Just Flip a Switch
There is both a theoretical (or legal), and a practical side to this issue.  Legally, the next Administration might prevail in a progressives-dominated SCOTUS, but where does that leave the American people?   Many progressives have likened this transgender issue to racial discrimination, except here we have a conflict with everybody else's inherent right to privacy - or maybe that's not a "right" anymore?

Some in the transgender community want main-streaming to eliminate the separate-but-equal discrimination of having access to individual facilities.  I'm sure other transgendered individuals actually prefer the latter.  Remembering that this is just not that common, school systems and local communities can work this out, and have been already.  But if the law is pushed through, main-streaming it is. 

Which brings us to everybody else.  It's already a fairly uncomfortable and charged situation in the boys' and girls' locker rooms.  Disparate rates of puberty and physical development exacerbate this.  Adding a 6th grade transgender (anatomical) girl to the boys' locker room (or vice versa), who frequently towers a foot or more over her male counterparts and is way ahead in the puberty department, would be an event.


At the general population level, such encounters would be relatively rare, but with the Administration's in-your-face push on this issue, it won't be decided in a sensitive way, but by the most extreme cases and whether it could happen at all.  Many women are uncomfortable just working out in front of men (hence the popularity of women's gyms); how would showering in front of them fly? 


Further, the potential for abuse and harassment goes up significantly when you sanctify the right to "feel" like a natural woman, all evidence to the contrary.  Any perv with a small camera now would have free access, plus a ticket to claim victim-hood if anyone dared call him on it.  And despite the low percentage risk, safety issues would linger in people's minds and certainly be highlighted in the media.


Although this can (and did) happen without the free Gender Pass, his presence in the women's room might soon go unquestioned or unchallenged.  Disregarding physical differences in sex is going to make most people very uncomfortable for awhile, or at least the idea of it will.

...

This is a complex issue and not only would it be addressed more effectively on a local level, but attitude changes and acceptance will take time.  Rushing certain issues through by unilateral decree, either to have an election wedge issue, cement a progressive legacy, or just to get things done doesn't mean there's an easy solution.  

Just like you don't just put up Stop Signs on the Highway,
These changes take time and planning.

Individual unisex locker rooms / showers may be where the line has to be drawn.  Right now, anyone who even remotely resembles a person of the denoted male or female sex can utilize that particular bathroom.  However, especially in schools, not everyone can be "mainstreamed" (as some in the LGBT community wish) at the cost of everyone else's right to privacy.  

But eventually, someday, maybe no one will care.


We've May Have Bigger Problems in the Bathroom

"Yes?..."